We know the world is changing – hotter, drier, floodier – at an increasingly alarming rate. What does it portend? If only we had a crystal ball.
Resource management professionals now have that “crystal ball.” It’s called ForCAST – Forest Change Assessment Simulation Tool. This online, interactive program models how Minnesota forests will change over the decades to the year 2100.
If droughts are the new normal, which tree species will not survive? (Punchline: aspen and paper birch) Which trees will replace them? (Bur oak and red maple) What if demand for biomass resources drops significantly, or explodes? Or maybe we stop cutting down trees and use them to sequester carbon?
How will a changing forest impact the forest products industry? How will wildlife adapt?
So many questions.
“The goal of ForCAST is to help decision makers – from a regional forester to natural resource managers to state level legislators,” explained John Du Plissis, NRRI Forest & Lands Research Group Leader. “Anyone, really, who needs to better understand how changes in forest markets and climate will impact our state.”
The first conceptual phase of the ForCAST was funded with $500K and Phase Two received $500K, both from the Minnesota legislature to deliver a tool for forest resource decision-making.
Grasping Complexity
Of course, there is no actual nor accurate crystal ball. But what ForCAST can do is offer some future scenarios to choose from: 1) Climate continues to change on its current trajectory; 2) Climate gets warmer and drier; 3) Climate gets warmer and wetter
Then layer those scenarios with changing forestry practices: 1) Business as usual, markets remain the same; 2) Expanded forest products industry, new mills and increased harvesting; 3) Carbon sequestration is prioritized, trees stay on landscape; 4) Markets decline as mills close
"It’s like managing a financial portfolio,” said Du Plissis. “If we lose aspen, what do we do? Do we value the benefits it brings to our landscape, or is there something else we should prioritize? The tool helps to identify and compare these choices."
For example, a county forester might use ForCAST to determine whether to harvest a specific area for bird species who prefer young forests or if not harvesting for carbon storage is a more valuable choice. These insights could help justify decisions that align with both economic and ecological goals.
ForCAST will also generate reports to provide decision support documentation.
Unique Tool
While similar tools have been developed for specific watersheds or smaller areas, this model spans 32 of Minnesota’s watersheds. Its ability to analyze multiple climate scenarios, forest management practices, and their impacts on both the landscape and economy sets it apart from other tools that focus only on one aspect of forest change.
Building it took years of data gathering, input from stakeholder groups and keeping pace with evolving technologies. For example, improved methods for measuring both above and below-ground biomass further refined the tool's predictions, making it even more accurate in modeling carbon storage and biomass.
“If everyone has done their jobs right, all the data is correct and our analyses are good, this may be what the future holds,” Du Plissis added. “Are our forests important enough for us to invest our tax dollars to mitigate impact? This will help us decide.”